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Economic Watch: Real estate data outshines the downward pressure on the economy
Zhuochuang Information 2019-11-14 15:14:27
Economic data for October was announced today. The floor space of newly started housing in the real estate market increased by 10% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of January-September. The real estate market has once again shown its resilience. Under the favorable influence of real estate data, black products represented by rebar have accelerated their growth. The main contract for rebar has risen to more than 3,500 yuan / ton. The falling clouds appear to be accompanied by the clear cold Siberian air. And dissipated. How was the data in October? Is it really getting better as reflected on the disk?
Overall stable economic operation in October
Judging from the economic data released in October, the overall economic operation is stable. However, the pressure reflected by economic data has not eased. The industrial added value from January to October increased by 5.6% year-on-year, which is the same as the data from January to September. However, the industrial added value in October was only 4.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1 percentage points. From January to October, the industrial added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous three quarters.
From the perspective of consumption, from January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,377.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%, a growth rate of 0.1 percentage point lower than that of January-September. In October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3,810.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, the total retail sales of social consumer goods excluding automobiles rose by 8.3%. Judging from the changes in consumption data, consumption is still poor, and the decline in consumption growth has a greater impact on economic growth.
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From an investment perspective, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the nation's investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 51,088 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points from January to September. In terms of different areas, infrastructure investment increased by 4.2% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 2.6%, and real estate development investment increased by 10.3%, which were 0.3, 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous three quarters.
According to the data before adjustment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first ten months of 2019 fell by 6.7%, which is far from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. According to the statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the data for the same period last year were based on statistical law enforcement inspections and the fourth time. The inventory results of the national economic census units were revised, and the growth rate was calculated on a comparable basis.
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From the perspective of exports, according to data released by the customs, in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 25.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4% over the same period last year, and continued a steady development trend. Among them, exports were 13.99 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; imports were 11.64 trillion yuan, down 0.4%; trade surplus was 2.35 trillion yuan, up 42.3%. From the perspective of the types of imports and exports, in the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 8.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3%, accounting for 58.3% of the total export value. During the same period, the total exports of seven major labor-intensive products such as clothing totaled 2.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1%, accounting for 19.4% of the total export value. Imports of commodities such as crude oil , coal, and natural gas increased, while imports of iron ore and soybeans decreased, and the average price of imported commodities went up and down.
Real estate stands out
From the perspective of investment data, from January to October 2019, the national real estate development investment was 10,960.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 0.2 percentage points from the January-September period. The investment data is still slowing down, but individual data shows Out of super toughness. From January to October, the construction area of real estate development companies was 854.882 million square meters, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that from January to September. The floor space of newly started housing was 1,858.34 million square meters, an increase of 10.0%, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.4 percentage points. The floor space of buildings completed was 54.211 million square meters, a decrease of 5.5% and a decrease of 3.1 percentage points.
The floor space of new houses started by real estate development companies is an important pre-indicator for judging the market demand for building materials. The toughness shown by the prices of cement glass and other products reflects that the current real estate demand for building materials products remains strong, and the toughness shown by the real estate market exceeds market expectations.
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Due to the characteristics of cement itself, cement can be treated more as an index of demand. As the new construction area of houses continues to be high, showing a super willful character, the price of cement has begun to perform strongly in the second half of the year, even when it enters construction materials. The off-season of consumption also shows a countercyclical rise.
The deviation between CPI and PPI is more obvious. The new inventory cycle is gradually approaching.
Affected by the cycle of super-strong pigs, the national consumer price rose by 3.8% year-on-year in October, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 0.9% from the previous month. In terms of categories, the price of food, tobacco and liquor increased by 11.4% year-on-year, with the highest contribution rate. Among food, tobacco and alcohol prices, grain prices rose 0.5%, pork rose 101.3%, fresh vegetables fell 10.2%, and fresh fruits fell 0.3%. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 1.5%, the same increase as last month. From January to October, the national consumer price rose by 2.6% year-on-year.
From the perspective of industrial production, due to the poor economic conditions of the manufacturing industry, the ex-factory price of industrial producers nationwide in October fell by 1.6% year-on-year, and the rate of decline accelerated. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and rose by 0.2% month-on-month. From January to October, the ex-factory price of industrial producers fell by 0.2% year-on-year, and the purchasing price of industrial producers fell by 0.5%.
From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the PPI trend is 4-11 months ahead of the inventory cycle, and the accelerated PPI bottom-up will also accelerate the process of destocking. Judging from the current situation, the PPI index is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the fourth quarter, and the start time of the new inventory cycle is gradually approaching. The sixth wave of inventory cycle since 2000 started at the latest in the second quarter of 2020.
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