"On the 2nd, Trump posted on social media that the currencies of Brazil and Argentina depreciated sharply, which is not good for American farmers, and the United States will immediately" recover "additional tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum products."
When I saw the news, I felt very strange. Why did Brazil and Argentina ’s currencies depreciate sharply, which led to a substantial increase in soybean
exports between the two countries? This has harmed the interests of American farmers and affected the interests of American farmers. China ’s soybeans instead sanction steel and aluminum. What is the logic?
Stuck in domestic economic development, Argentina and Brazilian currencies depreciate sharply
Argentina and Brazil are located in South America and have rich mineral resources. They are traditional resource-based countries. Economic development is highly dependent on exports. In addition to mineral resources, primary agricultural products are also one of the main economic sources of Argentina and Brazil.
Affected by the deterioration of the global economic environment in recent years, Brazil and Argentina's economic operations have been difficult, and so far they have not escaped the impact of the economic crisis of 15-16 years. The continued depreciation of the currencies of the two countries, in addition to the difficulties in the operation of their economies, was also suppressed by the strong dollar. Not only Brazil and Argentina, but the currencies of major emerging markets were generally under pressure. The tense global trade situation and the economic situation of Brazil and Argentina are becoming increasingly difficult. The pressure of continuous interest rate cuts and capital outflows has increased the pressure on the devaluation of the Real and the Argentine Peso.
Judging from the data, the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso have depreciated significantly against the US dollar in recent years. From the beginning of 17 to 19, the depreciation rates of the two reached 24% and 73%, respectively. The depreciation of the Argentine Peso is more obvious, and the two have a closer relationship with the domestic economy of Argentina. The National Bureau of Statistics of Argentina, the cumulative inflation rate of Argentina for the whole year of 2018 reached 47.6%, the highest record since 1991. This data is likely to reach a new high in 2019. WMF, head of IMF's Western Hemisphere Affairs, predicts that Argentina's inflation will be 57% by the end of the year.
US-China trade war costs U.S. soybean growers "loss"
Soybean has become a sensitive word since 2018 when the Sino-U.S. Trade war ignited. China is the world's largest consumer of soybeans, and most of China's soybeans depend on imports. So after the Sino-U.S. Trade war began, soybean imports quietly occurred. Variety. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China ’s soybean imports in January-October 2019 were 70.69 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%; in terms of amount, China ’s soybean imports in January-October 2019 were 28,158 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase. Down 15.2%.
Affected by the domestic epidemic of swine fever in Africa, the domestic consumption of soybean meal
has dropped significantly, which has also reduced the domestic dependence on imported soybeans. In addition, the improvement of domestic feeding formula has also reduced the demand for imported soybeans to a certain extent. As of October, the number of live pigs in our country fell by more than 40% year-on-year. The
sharp rise in pork
prices has stimulated the demand for alternative protein to a certain extent, so the decline in domestic soybean imports has not been that great.
Affected by the Sino-U.S. Trade war, the U.S. soybean planting industry has suffered a major blow, and its prices have plummeted, which has formed a value depression, which has provided some "traffickers" with opportunities. It is also the main reason why the sales volume of new beans in the United States reached 8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 127%.
The US presidential election is fierce. As the current president, Trump is not stable. For Trump, who is determined to be the greatest president on the planet, the most important thing at this stage is to find ways to keep the president.
During the Sino-U.S. Trade war that began in 2018, the United States did not achieve its expected results. Therefore, after the fourth quarter of this year, China and the United States held a "friendly meeting". The two sides reached some consensus on trade issues. The Sino-U.S. Trade war Turn off temporarily. Tough overseas policy has always been a great stick in the US presidential election. Since China cannot be shaken, the big stick naturally turns, so Argentina, Brazil, and France have become "bad luck." This morning, the United States intends to impose tariffs on US $ 2.4 billion in French goods in response to a digital tax. In addition, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) said that it is "exploring whether to open a 301 investigation into digital service taxes in Austria, Italy and Turkey."
Why start with steel and aluminum in Argentina and Brazil
Argentina, Brazil and the United States are the top three soybean producers in the world, and the three are in a competitive relationship. But 18 years later, due to the change in Sino-US trade relations, the global soybean export structure and consumption structure have changed, which has also caused the US soybean "golden master" to change. Brazil and Argentina are transforming into “bridges” for the China-US soybean trade. Naturally, the “bridge fees” are indispensable. This may be what Trump considers as “the sharp depreciation of the currencies of Brazil and Argentina. "American farmers are disadvantaged." In addition, Brazil and Argentina not only represent the Sino-US soybean trade, but may also undertake the Sino-US steel and aluminum trade. "There is no intermediary to earn the difference" is just a slogan, "Brazil and Argentina ’s currency depreciated sharply, which is not good for American farmers. The United States will immediately 'recover' the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian and Argentina steel and aluminum products. More subtext.
The Sino-US trade war is an important event in the field of international trade in the past two years, but it is by no means an isolated event. In the context of anti-globalization, the direction of the US trade stick waving is not limited to China, but all its small partners. The original globalization and regional organizations are within its scope of influence. The Sino-US trade war is only a temporary ceasefire, and the "wars" involving politics, finance, resources, talents, and education at a higher level will be even more brutal.
Fanwai: Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying announced at a regular press conference on the 2nd that the Chinese government has decided to suspend the review and approval of applications for U.S. warships to Hong Kong for recuperation. The NGOs performing poorly in the storm imposed sanctions. (untitled)