1. How is steel made?
The main task of steel smelting is to reduce the Fe element in iron ore, that is, the process of reducing valence iron to elemental iron. The transformation of steel from valence state to elemental state requires the use of reducing agents, so coke is required. On the one hand, it can provide the role of reducing agent, on the other hand, it can also use the heat released during the combustion process. According to the basic principle of chemical reflection, both sides of the formula need to conform to the mass balance theorem, so there is a set of theoretical formulas in smelting, which is the formula for the cost of blast furnace smelting now applied in the market:
Cost of molten iron = 1.6T * iron ore + 0.5T * C + comprehensive cost
It should be noted that the iron ore here refers to 62% grade refined powder (grade is iron content, a proper noun), and 1.6 tons is calculated by the following formula:
1.6 = 100/62
According to experience, for every 1% increase in iron ore grade, coke ratio increases by 2%, and output increases by 3%. However, in fact, the effect of 1% focus ratio of iron ore grade changes was calculated using the Lam calculation method, and the actual statistical result was 1: 1.74: 2.39.
Significance of raw material price monitoring
The main task of steel smelting is to reduce the valence iron to elemental iron. How to complete the task of iron smelting at a lower cost, that is, the main task of steel smelting. The fluctuation of raw material prices will affect the changes in smelting costs. When the relationship between the price of raw materials changes, it will promote the change of the smelting ratio of enterprises, thereby adjusting the procurement and use ratio of raw materials.
When the profit per ton of steel is high, the main consideration is how to produce more "iron". According to the task of steel smelting, the grade of iron ore into the furnace can be improved, so that the output of molten iron can be increased. For example, in 2017-2018, the profit per ton of steel is in a beyond-expected range, and the company is pursuing high output, so it has increased the use of high-grade ore, which has led to a significant increase in the price difference between different grades of iron ore.
After entering the fourth quarter of 2018, with the decline in steel prices, steel profits gradually recovered, and costs became the main consideration of production in the company again, and the price difference between high and low prices gradually returned to normal levels.
Since 2017, due to the high profit trend, companies have been dissatisfied with the use of a higher proportion of high-grade iron ore in the blast furnace. Therefore, directly adding scrap to the blast furnace has become an "innovative" way, which has also led to the use of scrap in 2017. Greatly improved in -18 years.
Under normal circumstances, there is an optimal ratio between the grade of iron ore and the proportion of coke used. The ratio will generally remain stable. The cost of a ton of molten steel can reflect the cost control of a company. Capacity. Under the condition of lower profits, whoever can better control the production cost of the blast furnace can obtain higher returns.
3. What is the role of other auxiliary materials besides iron ore and coke?
In iron and steel smelting, the blast furnace is only the first step. The molten iron smelted from the blast furnace still contains more impurities, so it needs further "de-doping". The de-doping process is mainly completed in the converter and refining furnace. The method of ferroalloy adjusts the elements in the molten iron, so the role of ferroalloys in the converter is three, inoculant, deoxidizer, and alloy additives, which respectively ① remove the oxygen group elements in the molten steel ② according to the composition requirements of the steel, add The alloy elements are added to the steel to improve the properties of the steel. ③ It is added into the molten iron before the cast iron is cast to improve the three functions of the crystal structure of the casting.
According to the standards for steel production, the trace elements contained in different steel types are not the same. Rebar: the content of the content of the main indicators: C, Mn, P, S, Si and other items, different brands, the content varies, its approximate The range is: C (0.10 ～ 0.40%), Mn <1.80%, P <0.050%, S <0.050%, and Si (0.60 ～ 1.00%). Calculated based on the 1.6% Mn element content, each ton of rebar needs to be used To silicon manganese and gold (65Mn) 26Kg.
In the new national standard for rebar, which was implemented on November 1, 2018, the quality of rebar was redefined. The production process of rebar requires the use of vanadium to meet its quality inspection requirements. According to the new national standard, the rebar needs to contain 0.025% -0.03% of vanadium, and 0.479Kg is needed to convert to vanadium (V2O5) tons of steel.
On December 30, 2019, 6517 silicon-manganese alloy was quoted at 6,100 yuan / ton, and vanadium flakes were quoted at 93,000 yuan / ton. The cost of a ton of steel alloy was about 202.6 yuan / ton.
Fourth, the basic framework of raw material price monitoring
The main purpose of monitoring raw material prices is to reflect changes in raw material costs in steel smelting through fluctuations in raw material prices. First, a suitable area needs to be selected based on the basic principles of steel smelting to simulate the production process of a steel plant. According to the characteristics released by domestic steel companies, we choose Shandong Rizhao as the construction site of the simulated steel plant. This can minimize the increase in raw material costs caused by logistics and transportation.
In terms of price, we use 62.5% grade PB powder from Rizhao Port as the monitoring price of iron ore, and use the price of coke delivered in Shandong market as the main cost of coke. The entire production process of the manufacturing enterprise.
In addition, we need to conduct comparative research on the same raw materials in different regions in order to obtain arbitrage opportunities for raw material prices between different regions; we also need to compare prices between different raw material varieties to find arbitrage opportunities between different products. Here, we will introduce steel products for comparison, such as double coke ratio (coke / coking coal), snail ratio (thread / ore), screw coke ratio (rebar / coke) and so on.
V. Strategies for price tracking based on raw materials
The different fluctuation rates of raw material prices and steel prices cause changes in commodity smelting costs. In 2020, the steel market will still face greater downward pressure. The downward pressure mainly comes from the downward economic cycle pressure of economic growth, not the industry itself. The fluctuation of iron ore prices has generally weakened, and unless major events such as mine accidents occur in large mines, it is difficult to change the trend. With reference to the fluctuation space of steel production profits of 100-800, it is empty when it exceeds expectations, and it is more than below expectations. In terms of double coke, coke is still under pressure from the supply side. Design of bifocal ratio; two products of ferroalloy, with lower capital participation, can better reflect the trend of fundamentals, and can be used as an advanced configuration, that is, when the market is weakening, the fall is smoother; when the market is rising, the Smoother.